The Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur are set to clash in one of football’s most intense rivalries on Sunday, November 23, 2025, Emirates Stadium in London — a North London derby that could reshape the Premier League’s top-four race. With Arsenal riding a five-match unbeaten streak (wwwwd) and Tottenham struggling to find consistency, the betting markets are sharply divided — but most experts are leaning toward a tight, defensive masterclass from the home side.
Defensive Dominance Drives Arsenal’s Edge
Here’s the thing: Arsenal haven’t conceded a single goal at home this season. Zero. Not one. In their last five matches, they’ve kept three clean sheets, including two shutouts at Emirates Stadium. Their overall defensive record — just 0.40 goals conceded per game — is the best in the Premier League. At home? It drops to 0.00. That’s not luck. That’s structure. That’s Mikel Arteta’s system locking down space, cutting passing lanes, and forcing opponents into low-percentage shots. The data from Footballpredictions.com shows Arsenal’s away win rate is 67%, but their home win rate? 100%. And with Gabriel Jesus sidelined, the defense hasn’t cracked. In fact, it’s tightened. The London Evening Standard put it bluntly: “Arsenal, even without Gabriel [Jesus], will be confident of shutting Spurs out.”
Betting Markets Split — But Value Lies Elsewhere
Most betting sites, including Footballpredictions.com, are predicting a 1-0 Arsenal win. Goncalo Ramos is named as the likely goalscorer at -105 odds, with Rodrigo Bentancur expected to pick up a yellow card at +175. The “Under 2.5 Goals” market is priced at 100, while “Both Teams to Score: No” sits at -120. But here’s the twist: SportsGambler.com isn’t buying it. They’re backing Tottenham +1.25 at -106, arguing the bookmakers’ implied probability of 51.5% undervalues Spurs’ chances. “Our research puts the real probability at 55-60%,” they wrote. That’s not just a bet — it’s a statement. Spurs may not win, but they’re more likely to avoid a heavy defeat than the odds suggest.
Why the Discrepancy?
Arsenal’s odds of -233 imply a 70% chance of victory — a number that feels inflated given Tottenham’s recent form. Spurs have won 40% of their matches overall, with 50% of those coming away from home. Their attack, averaging 2.80 goals per game, is dangerous — especially when they get on the counter. But Arsenal’s expected goals against (1.37 overall, 1.35 at home) suggest they’re not just lucky. They’re efficient. Opponents average 5.9 shot attempts against them — only 1.4 are on target. That’s elite defense.
Historical Context: A Rivalry Built on Near Misses
The head-to-head record tells a story of fine margins. In 41 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 19 (46%), Tottenham 12 (29%), with 10 draws. The last five derbies? Two wins each, one draw. This isn’t a one-sided rivalry — it’s a chess match. And this time, the home team holds the initiative. Gooners Guide’s Auls predicted a 2-1 Arsenal win, backing an “Arsenal to Win & Over 1 Total Goal” bet builder at 1.66. Windrawwin.com, meanwhile, leans into the 1-0 narrative with a “Large Wager on Home Win” at -125. The divergence in predictions? It’s not confusion — it’s the nature of the derby. One goal changes everything.
The Stakes: An 11-Point Gap Could Be Created
If Arsenal win, as most models suggest, they’ll extend their lead over Tottenham to 11 points — a chasm in a league where 3-4 points often separate title contenders from the rest. That’s not just a psychological blow to Spurs fans; it’s a structural shift. Tottenham’s 2025-26 season has been defined by inconsistency: 7 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws in their last 10. Arsenal? 60.9% average possession, 507.2 passes per game, and 7.1 corners — control, precision, patience. They’re not just beating teams; they’re outthinking them.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
A win for Arsenal would push them within touching distance of the top spot, especially if Manchester City slip up. For Tottenham, a loss would force a reckoning — questions about Ange Postecoglou’s tactics, squad depth, and whether their attack can deliver under pressure. The betting markets have already priced in Arsenal’s dominance, but the real story lies in the margins: a single shot on target, a moment of individual brilliance, or a defensive lapse. That’s what makes this derby timeless.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the 1-0 prediction so popular for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
The 1-0 prediction dominates because Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in every home match this season and conceded just 0.40 goals per game overall. Their defensive structure, led by William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, has been the most consistent in the Premier League. Combined with Tottenham’s tendency to struggle against compact defenses, a narrow home win is statistically the most likely outcome.
Is Tottenham +1.25 really a value bet?
Yes, according to SportsGambler.com, which calculates Tottenham’s actual win/draw probability at 55-60% — higher than the 51.5% implied by the -106 odds. Even if they lose by one goal, the bet wins. Given Arsenal’s recent tendency to win by one-goal margins and Spurs’ ability to stay competitive in tight games, this bet offers better value than outright home wins.
How does Gabriel Jesus’ absence affect Arsenal’s chances?
Surprisingly, not much. Arsenal’s defense has improved since his injury, with Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz stepping up in attack. The team has adapted to a more direct, counter-based style without him. The key is that Arsenal’s goals have come from multiple sources — Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, and Ramos — not just one striker. Their win rate hasn’t dipped.
What’s the significance of the 11-point gap mentioned by the London Evening Standard?
An 11-point lead would be the largest gap between Arsenal and Tottenham in the Premier League era since 2004. It would effectively end Tottenham’s title hopes for the season and shift the psychological balance of the rivalry for years. In a league where top-four finishes are worth hundreds of millions, that gap isn’t just about pride — it’s financial survival.
Are there any underrated betting markets worth considering?
Yes. “Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5” at +150 and “Total Corners: 9–11” at +162 offer solid value. Arsenal average 7.1 corners per game, and Tottenham’s high press often leads to defensive clearances and set pieces. With both teams disciplined defensively, the game may be low-scoring but high in set-piece activity.
How does this match compare to past North London derbies?
Unlike the high-octane clashes of 2004 or 2012, this one is a tactical battle. The last five derbies have averaged 2.2 goals — lower than the 3.1 average from 2000–2010. This reflects modern football’s emphasis on structure over flair. Arsenal’s 19 wins in 41 meetings give them the edge historically, but the last decade has been tighter — making this match a potential turning point.
