When Real Madrid CF steps onto the pitch at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero on Sunday, November 23, 2025, it won’t just be another league game — it’s a statement. The Spanish giants, led by manager Xabi Alonso, sit atop La Liga with a three-point cushion over Barcelona, but their last three matches have left fans uneasy: a goalless draw with Rayo Vallecano, a 1-0 loss to Liverpool in the Champions League, and now a trip to a stubborn Elche side that, despite recent struggles, still has home-field grit. This isn’t just about points. It’s about momentum. And for a team chasing their first league title since 2022, the clock is ticking.
The Weight of History
Real Madrid’s dominance over Elche isn’t just statistical — it’s almost mythical. Since 1975, Los Blancos have gone 17 games without a loss against the Alicante-based club. That’s 50 years of futility for Elche. In the last 53 meetings, Real Madrid has won 35 times, drawn 12, and lost just six. The most recent encounter, a 4-0 thrashing at the Bernabéu in February 2023, felt less like a match and more like a rehearsal. But this isn’t the Elche of 2023. This is a newly promoted side that began the 2025-26 campaign with a seven-game unbeaten run — a dream start that has since evaporated. Since September, they’ve failed to win a single league match: three losses, two draws. Their 3-1 defeat to Barcelona on November 2 was the final nail in that early-season coffin.
Form, Stats, and the Numbers Game
The numbers tell a clear story. Real Madrid averages 2.67 goals per game this season, scoring in every single league match. Elche? They’ve failed to find the net in 60% of their home games. Their expected goals (xG) of 2.29 per match sounds impressive — until you realize they’ve only converted 1.40 goals on average. Meanwhile, Real Madrid’s 2.75 xG is backed by 2.33 actual goals. Their defense? Five clean sheets in their last six games. Elche, by contrast, has conceded in five of their last seven outings. Even more telling: six of Elche’s last seven league games have seen both teams score. Yet, most analysts — Sportskeeda, Sports Illustrated, Footballpredictions.com — are all betting on a shutout. Why? Because Real Madrid’s defensive structure under Alonso has tightened. And Elche’s attack? It’s lost its rhythm.
Who’s Playing? Who’s Missing?
Real Madrid’s injury list is longer than a Spanish siesta: Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Dani Carvajal, and Antonio Rüdiger are all sidelined. Franco Mastantuono, the 17-year-old wonderkid, is also out. But here’s the twist: Alonso’s squad depth is the envy of Europe. Sports Illustrated projected a lineup featuring Thibaut Courtois; Trent Alexander-Arnold, David Asencio, Jorrel Hato, Álvaro Carreras; Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, and Jude Bellingham; with Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior leading the line. Even without Valverde, Camavinga and Güler offer creativity and grit. Mbappé, fresh off his 14th goal of the season, is the man everyone’s watching. At -188 odds to score, he’s the safest bet on the board. Elche, meanwhile, will likely rely on striker Lucas Pérez and midfield maestro Álex Martínez to spark something. But without consistent service, even the best forwards look lost.
The Betting Landscape
Bookmakers are leaning hard on Real Madrid. Most sites — Sportskeeda, Footballpredictions.com, Windrawwin.com — recommend: Real Madrid to win, both teams to score: no, and under 2.5 goals. The most common predicted score? 0-2. Sportskeeda goes further, forecasting a 0-3 rout. Only Footballpredictions.net dares to predict a 2-1 Elche win — but they list Carlo Ancelotti as manager, which is factually wrong. That’s not a prediction. That’s a typo masquerading as analysis. Even algorithmic models from Forebet.com give Real Madrid a 55% chance of victory. The consensus? A clean, clinical win. No drama. No last-minute heroics. Just Real Madrid doing what they do best: winning when it matters.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
This isn’t just about extending their lead. It’s about psychology. Real Madrid hasn’t lost three consecutive matches in any competition since 2019. A third straight draw or, worse, a loss, would ignite panic. Fans remember the 2023-24 season — when early inconsistencies cost them the title. This is their chance to bury those ghosts. For Elche, it’s about survival. They’re 14th in the table, just two points above the relegation zone. A win here would be their first since September. But the odds? They’re stacked against them. The stadium will be loud. The fans will believe. But belief doesn’t beat 2.75 xG per game.
What’s Next?
After this match, Real Madrid face Sevilla in the Copa del Rey on November 27, then a critical Clásico against Barcelona on December 1. A win here gives them breathing room. A slip-up? Suddenly, the title race tightens. For Elche, the next three games — against Atlético Madrid, Girona, and Real Sociedad — are essentially must-wins. If they leave Elche with nothing on Sunday, the relegation battle becomes a nightmare. The pressure isn’t just on the pitch. It’s in the boardroom, in the locker room, in every fan’s heart.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Real Madrid still favored despite injuries?
Even without Valverde, Carvajal, and Rüdiger, Real Madrid’s squad depth is unmatched. Players like Arda Güler and David Asencio have stepped up in recent weeks, and Xabi Alonso’s tactical flexibility allows him to shift formations without losing structure. Their average of 2.67 goals per game and a 67% clean sheet rate show they’re not reliant on star names — they’re built for consistency.
Has Elche ever beaten Real Madrid in La Liga since 1975?
No. Real Madrid has gone 17 consecutive league matches without a loss to Elche since their last defeat in 1975 — a 2-1 away win for Elche at the Santiago Bernabéu. That’s nearly half a century of dominance. Even during Elche’s 2024-25 promotion season, they lost both league fixtures against Real Madrid, 0-3 at home and 0-2 away.
What’s the significance of Kylian Mbappé being the predicted goalscorer?
Mbappé has scored in 10 of his 12 La Liga appearances this season, including four goals in his last three games. At -188 odds, he’s the most reliable scorer in the league right now. His pace exploits Elche’s high defensive line, and with Vinícius Júnior drawing defenders, he’s in prime position to strike. If he scores, the match is effectively over by halftime.
Why do most analysts predict under 2.5 goals?
Despite Elche’s recent trend of both teams scoring, Real Madrid’s defense has been impenetrable — five clean sheets in six games. Elche’s attack has stalled, averaging just 1.40 goals per game at home. With Real Madrid likely to control possession and Elche sitting deep, the game could become a tactical grind. The 0-2 and 0-3 predictions reflect a controlled, efficient performance — not an open shootout.
Could this result impact Real Madrid’s Champions League chances?
Absolutely. A win here keeps them top of La Liga, which reduces pressure ahead of their final group stage match against Borussia Dortmund. More importantly, momentum matters in knockout football. Three straight results without a win could shake confidence before the Round of 16. A dominant performance on Sunday would send a message: Real Madrid are still the team to beat — in every competition.
Is Elche’s recent form a fluke or a sign of deeper problems?
It’s both. Their early success came against mid-table sides like Celta Vigo and Rayo Vallecano. Now they’re facing elite teams — Barcelona, Atlético, Real Madrid — and their lack of top-tier experience is showing. Their midfield lacks control, and their defense is too wide. Without a true playmaker to dictate tempo, they’re outclassed. This isn’t just bad luck — it’s a mismatch in quality.
