When Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 27, 2025, the spotlight won’t just be on Patrick Mahomes—it’ll be on the underdogs making noise. The Chiefs, riding a four-game streak of scoring 28+ points, are 10.5-point favorites. But the real story? The props. And no one’s more intriguing than Rashee Rice, the 24-year-old wideout back from suspension and now the most dangerous red-zone threat in the NFL.
How Rashee Rice Became the Biggest Prop Play in the NFL
Rice returned from a six-game suspension in Week 7 and didn’t just show up—he exploded. Seven catches. Two touchdowns. Both scores came from inside the 5-yard line. That’s not luck. That’s chemistry. With Patrick Mahomes throwing to him on 19 routes in that game, Rice was targeted 10 times. The Chiefs average 35.8 pass attempts per game—eighth in the league. The Commanders’ pass defense? 25th. SportsLine’s Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, says Rice has a 70% chance of scoring a touchdown. His anytime TD odds? -105. That’s better than even money. And his over/under for receptions? 6.5 at +125. He’s hit that in three of his last five games. This isn’t a gamble. It’s a pattern.Marcus Mariota: The Backup Who Might Win This Game
The Commanders’ season pivoted when Jayden Daniels tore his hamstring. Enter Marcus Mariota, 31, the veteran who’s been here before. He’s not a passer—he’s a scrambler. In his three 2025 starts, he’s rushed for 34, 56, and 17 yards. That’s an average of over 30 yards per game. The Chiefs’ run defense? Solid, but not elite. They’re 15th in yards allowed, 22nd in yards per carry. And Mariota’s mobility is a wildcard. BetMGM has him at -120 to go over 28.5 rushing yards. That’s not just a prop—it’s a strategic edge. The Commanders will lean on him to extend drives, keep the clock moving, and take pressure off a shaky passing game. If he hits that number, he’s not just playing well—he’s stealing wins.The Underdog Runner: Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s Breakout
Meet Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Seventh-round pick. Nicknamed "Bill" by Washington fans. And he’s already outplayed Brian Robinson Jr. The Commanders traded Robinson after Croskey-Merritt averaged 5.2 yards per carry in his first seven games—377 rushing yards, four touchdowns. The SportsLine model says he’s got a 46% chance of scoring against Kansas City. His anytime TD odds? +225. That’s not a long shot. That’s a sleeper with momentum. He’s also a receiving threat out of the backfield, which makes his over/under for rushing and receiving yards at 52.5 a sneaky play. The Chiefs’ linebackers have struggled with versatile backs all season. And with Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel banged up, the Commanders’ offense will run through Croskey-Merritt.Why the Chiefs’ Offense Is a Prop Machine
Mahomes has thrown for 28+ points in four straight games. That’s not just talent—it’s system. The Chiefs lead the league in red-zone efficiency. Rice, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy are all scoring threats. But the most underrated prop? Mahomes over 23.5 rushing yards at -110. He’s averaged 27 rushing yards per game this season. He’s had three games with over 30. And with the Commanders’ defense focused on stopping Rice and Kelce, Mahomes will have lanes. He’s not just a passer—he’s a runner who knows when to tuck and go.The Parlay That Could Pay Off
DraftKings is pushing a parlay: Rice (-105), Croskey-Merritt (+225), and Marquise Brown (+290). Combined, it’s +1900. That’s not a fantasy bet. That’s a calculated risk. Brown, despite being the third option, has seen 11 targets in his last two games. And with Washington’s secondary thin, he’s a viable deep threat. The SportsLine model, which has netted $7,000 for $100 players since 2024, backs this trio. And if you’re betting with $5, DraftKings gives you $300 in bonus bets if it wins. That’s not just a promotion—it’s an opportunity.What’s at Stake Beyond the Props
This isn’t just about betting lines. It’s about identity. The Commanders, without Daniels, are becoming a ground-and-pound team. Mariota’s mobility is their lifeline. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are proving they don’t need a perfect game to win—they just need Rice to find the end zone. If Kansas City wins by three touchdowns, it’s because their offense is unstoppable. If Washington wins by one, it’s because Mariota and Croskey-Merritt outworked them.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Rashee Rice such a strong prop despite his suspension?
Rice returned in Week 7 and immediately became Mahomes’ favorite red-zone target, recording seven catches and two touchdowns. His 11 career touchdowns in just 21 games show elite efficiency. With the Commanders’ pass defense ranked 25th and the Chiefs averaging 35.8 pass attempts per game, Rice is targeted heavily in high-leverage situations, making his over 6.5 receptions (+125) and anytime TD (-105) among the safest props on the board.
How does Marcus Mariota’s mobility change the Commanders’ game plan?
With Jayden Daniels out, Mariota’s rushing ability becomes Washington’s primary offensive weapon. He’s averaged over 30 rushing yards per game this season, and the Chiefs’ defense has allowed 120+ rushing yards in three of their last five games. By keeping drives alive with scrambles, Mariota limits Kansas City’s time of possession and forces their defense to account for him as a runner—opening lanes for Croskey-Merritt and short passes.
Is Jacory Croskey-Merritt a real threat or just a hype play?
Croskey-Merritt isn’t hype—he’s production. As a seventh-round pick, he’s already outplayed starter Brian Robinson Jr., averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns in seven games. The Chiefs rank 22nd in yards allowed per carry, and with Washington’s passing game limited, Croskey-Merritt is likely to see 15+ touches. His +225 anytime TD odds reflect his actual scoring probability, not just speculation.
Why is the over/under set at 48.5 points?
The over/under reflects Kansas City’s explosive offense—four straight games with 28+ points—and Washington’s reliance on Mariota’s rushing to sustain drives. While the Commanders’ passing game is limited, their ground attack and Chiefs’ scoring efficiency create a high-floor, high-ceiling scenario. The SportsLine model projects a 49.3-point total, making the over (-105) the statistically smarter play despite the line favoring the under.
Can the Commanders cover the 10.5-point spread?
It’s unlikely but not impossible. If Mariota rushes for 40+ yards, Croskey-Merritt scores twice, and the Chiefs’ offense stalls in the red zone, Washington could stay within 10. But Kansas City’s scoring consistency and Rice’s touchdown efficiency make a blowout probable. The spread is steep, but the props—especially Rice and Mariota’s rushing—offer better value than betting on the spread itself.
Comments
Man, Rice is straight-up a red-zone assassin now. Mahomes just looks at him and the ball disappears into the end zone. No fluke, no luck-just pure execution. Commanders’ DBs are out here playing checkers while he’s playing 4D chess.
Let’s be real-the entire narrative is manufactured by DraftKings’ marketing team. They need buzz to move volume. Rice is good, sure, but 70% TD probability? That’s not analytics, that’s fantasy propaganda. They’re selling hope like it’s crypto.